The Coming Presidency of Joseph R. Biden: A Bridge Through Troubled Waters

MGK

January 3, 2021 and updated April 22

Preface:   I found this short essay that I wrote in April 2020 and never published.  I think it is still on target, generally.  The economic recovery has been a K, not a V, as wealthier people most have seen their wealth recover quickly from the pandemic lows while many middle and working class people, especially those in the service industries, are experiencing difficult times with employment uncertainty.  I am not sure whether the coming historic election that will mark a real shift is 2024 or 2028; I now lean towards 2028, as the election showed how polarized we still are, and are likely to continue to be in 2024.  The dam of our polarization might not break until late in this decade.  I do still see Biden as an historic transitional figure.  His election, in spite of  disasterous Congressional and State-level results for Democrats, is an incredibly important event; it dwarfs everything because it gives us a more stable path through the transition. Four more years of Trump might’ve been too much for already strained democratic institutions to bear.  Autocracy could have been the result, and violence from the left and the right would've occured.  This would’ve given Trump an opportunity to consolidate even more power.  Think about how close we’ve come to one of those scenarios and it is easier to see why Biden was the best nominee this cycle.  He is moderate and experienced enough that a backlash to his election will not gain sufficient strength to truly destabilize the country.  When I wrote this, I predicted his presidency wouldn't be seen as an immediate success.  My view is shifting, as he is taking bold action that is broadly supported.  He is embracing, and I believe will fulfill, an archetypal role of facilitating a generational transition.

The Coming Presidency of Joseph R. Biden:  A Bridge Through Troubled Waters

April 21, 2020

Note:  Obviously, it is audacious to assume Biden will win.  I don’t know it to be true but I believe it to be likely.

If Joe Biden wins the presidential election, for much of the country it will feel like a huge sea change, the end of the Trump era.  It will feel to some like we’ve “crossed over” a dark period.  Many will expect big shifts in how we feel, what we do, and how we engage each other; in short, a change in the basic socio-political dynamic.  They might also expect that the pandemic will end and the economy will improve; a “V” recovery so to speak.  I think they will be wrong.

The Biden Presidency will more likely be a period of deepening the political divide during a time in which the economy will worsen.  The long-building problems in our society are coming to a head, and will be for next several years, no matter who the president is.  There are any number of important issues that have been simmering for decades.  Income inequality and the wealth gap tops the list, as this affects everyone and the status quo is unsustainable.  This is directly related to the kind of economy, even the form of capitalism, that will work best in the future.   However, these aren’t the only issues coming to a head.  Cultural and religious conflicts have taken far too big a role in our public policy discourse, creating false dichotomies and deepening political schisms unnecessarily.   Our ongoing journey around diversity and inclusion is coming to a head as the dominant white majority is soon to be less than 50% of the population.  The level of open and covert racism in our socio-politico debates and our policies (i.e. immigration, voting rights, social safety net) is unsustainable. 

Essentially, a lot is happening and it is coming to a head now.  The pandemic lays it all the more bare.  Perhaps this is due to cyclical change processes that repeat over time, connected to generational transitions (i.e. The Fourth Turning, 1997) or socio-economic and institutional cycles (George Friedman, The Storm Before the Calm, 2019).  However we look at it, we are being roiled, the pandemic is enhancing all of this, and it is going to get more challenging.  The seeds will be planted though, for a better future.

In Biden’s presidency, things will get done but it might not seem that way.  The political climate will be as, or more, contentious than ever, but some issues will get addressed.  Healthcare is a good example.  Even in the very politically polarizing Obama presidency, the Affordable Care Act was passed and it changed the whole discussion of healthcare.  Several years of public polling show that the support for the fundamental changes the ACA brought in the areas of pre-existing conditions, a goal of universal coverage, coverage not dependent upon on employer, etc. is strong.  So even while in a contentious period, real change happened.  I think with President Biden real change will occur as the ACA is built upon in some significant way; a pandemic reminds us of the value of universal healthcare.  It is possible that after months of clearing skies and oceans, there will be more appetite for substantial investment in green energy, particularly as part of an economic stimulus program.  Quite possibly some substantial steps on immigration could happen, though that might wait for the next President.

After Biden’s one-term presidency, the country will be ready to shift, more ready than we will sense at the moment.  2024 could be an historic election.  In my work helping organization’s change I have noticed that the times of the most contention are often the times when the biggest changes are about to happen; contentiousness can be a sign of engagement, and engagement creates the social and political energy for change.  The Biden presidency will not be viewed as particularly successful, as there will be much sacrifice and pain, though our regard for it might grow with time.  We will look back at Biden as the leader who created the bridge to the next generation of leadership.  This bridge though will not be constructed over the troubled waters but instead will pass through them.  Let’s hope it can hold.