Friday, January 15, 2021

The Obviousness, Ridiculousness and Societal Risk of Racial Bigotry and Racism in America

 MGK January 15 2021

There are a lot of ways to look at the January 6 attack on our Nation’s Capital, and one of those is to look through the lens of race.  The events at the Capitol Building earlier this past summer and now on January 6 make the state of race in our country quite clear.  Comparing the vastly different police and military reactions to the summer’s Black Lives Matter protests and last week’s insurrection, it is easy to see both racial bigotry (an assumption that black people are more violent and less worth of respect and consideration) and racism (the use of organs of the state to institutionalize and act on that bigotry in terms of policies and practices).  Not only is the racial bigotry and racism obvious, the more light shone upon it demonstrates how ridiculous it is.  However, it is much more than just ridiculous, as these recent events demonstrate the risk to the country of unfettered bigotry and racism. 

The difference in the treatment of a group of very racially diverse protestors with a group that was almost entirely white is obvious to see.  Just contrast the pictures of police and military in combat gear with combat weaponry lined up in the hundreds surrounding the Capitol building as BLM prepared to protest, to the pictures of a relatively small police presence with limited weaponry and few reinforcements on January 6.  Given what was known about each group, it is easy to see the ridiculousness of racial bigotry.  According to research at Harvard’s Kennedy School (Chenoweth and Wallach), BLM protests were largely peaceful, with a few exceptions, and the violence that occurred was not insignificantly from police or right-wing counter protestors.  In 96.3% of the BLM protests, there was no property damage or police injuries.  The study’s authors concluded that “[T]he protests were extraordinarily nonviolent, and extraordinarily nondestructive, given the unprecedented size of the movement’s participation and geographic scope.”  Contrast this to what we are now learning was known about the Capitol rioters.  The FBI not only had intelligence that there was likely to be violence by a large group determined to invade the capital, they also knew that dozens of known domestic terrorists who were on “watch lists” were intended to be in Washington.

This demonstrated the ridiculousness of how these events were dealt with so differently.  While there was no reason to anticipate destruction or violence at BLM events, the police and military preparation was very robust and aggressive, culminating in the violent clearing of a peaceful protest in Lafayette Park so that the President could be photographed holding up a bible in front of the church across from the park.  Peaceful protestors were attacked, and pepper-sprayed, for a political photo op.  Contrast that with pictures of police taking selfies with the invaders of the Capital and with police opening up barriers to allow protestors on the Capitol grounds.  Yep, that is ridiculous.  It is not just ridiculous though; it is also risky.

Do we know if the reason for this very different law enforcement treatment is racial bigotry or racism, or both?  It sure seems that way, and we will know more soon as the investigation is just starting.  However, what we can see very clearly is that a great deal of risk is created by these attitudes and actions.  Some have known about the risk racism presents for a long time.  We can see this awareness broadening recently, as Donald Trump’s FBI concluded in the past year or so that our greatest national security threat is right-wing, white supremacist, domestic terrorism.  FBI Director Christopher Wray said, "What I can tell you is that, within the domestic terrorism bucket category as a whole, racially-motivated violent extremism is, I think, the biggest bucket within that larger group, and within the racially-motivated violent extremist(s) bucket, people subscribing to some kind of white supremacist-type ideology is certainly the biggest chunk of that."  The mainstream public dialogue about race and racism rarely goes to risk, as our dialogue is more often a debate about the extent to which racism is real, or a problem, or significantly impactful in people’s lives.  We need to shift the race conversation more often onto this topic.  Think about the risk of January 6.  According to some, we were literally a couple of minutes from what might’ve been a hostage-taking and/or massacre of members of Congress.  This would not only have been a human tragedy, but it also had the potential to greatly destabilize our government, create a constitutional crisis, and perhaps even a successful coup by Trump and his supporters.  If we are unable to confront, combat, and significantly reduce white supremacy, we put our ability to govern at risk.  These are the most apparent existential threats that unmitigated racism evokes.  There are many other threats related to our ability to lead in the world, to develop beneficial relationships, and to be the country to which the world’s best creative and innovative talent wants to come.

We are an increasingly racially diverse country, and that is not going to change.  In fact, we are going to become even more racially diverse, with whites becoming less than 50% of the population in about 25 years.   Is the racial bigotry and racism on full display now a reaction or backlash to our changing racial demographic?  I think yes, to at least some extent.  I also think some level of reaction and backlash to real change is inevitable, whether we are talking about the shift from in-person to online-based banking or the changing racial composition of our country.  We can look at this backlash as not only inevitable but also a sign that real change is taking hold.  Change heightens risk though, and can bring about a crisis.   The Japanese symbol for crisis is a character that includes words equivalent to “dangerous opportunity.”  The obviousness and ridiculousness of racism is on full display, and I believe this is evidence that real change is underway.  Can we manage the crisis? Can we mitigate the risk as we move through this period, so that we can stand on the other side celebrating one more big step forward?


 

Sunday, January 3, 2021

The Coming Presidency of Joseph R. Biden: A Bridge Through Troubled Waters

MGK

January 3, 2021 and updated April 22

Preface:   I found this short essay that I wrote in April 2020 and never published.  I think it is still on target, generally.  The economic recovery has been a K, not a V, as wealthier people most have seen their wealth recover quickly from the pandemic lows while many middle and working class people, especially those in the service industries, are experiencing difficult times with employment uncertainty.  I am not sure whether the coming historic election that will mark a real shift is 2024 or 2028; I now lean towards 2028, as the election showed how polarized we still are, and are likely to continue to be in 2024.  The dam of our polarization might not break until late in this decade.  I do still see Biden as an historic transitional figure.  His election, in spite of  disasterous Congressional and State-level results for Democrats, is an incredibly important event; it dwarfs everything because it gives us a more stable path through the transition. Four more years of Trump might’ve been too much for already strained democratic institutions to bear.  Autocracy could have been the result, and violence from the left and the right would've occured.  This would’ve given Trump an opportunity to consolidate even more power.  Think about how close we’ve come to one of those scenarios and it is easier to see why Biden was the best nominee this cycle.  He is moderate and experienced enough that a backlash to his election will not gain sufficient strength to truly destabilize the country.  When I wrote this, I predicted his presidency wouldn't be seen as an immediate success.  My view is shifting, as he is taking bold action that is broadly supported.  He is embracing, and I believe will fulfill, an archetypal role of facilitating a generational transition.


The Coming Presidency of Joseph R. Biden:  A Bridge Through Troubled Waters

April 21, 2020

Note:  Obviously, it is audacious to assume Biden will win.  I don’t know it to be true but I believe it to be likely.

If Joe Biden wins the presidential election, for much of the country it will feel like a huge sea change, the end of the Trump era.  It will feel to some like we’ve “crossed over” a dark period.  Many will expect big shifts in how we feel, what we do, and how we engage each other; in short, a change in the basic socio-political dynamic.  They might also expect that the pandemic will end and the economy will improve; a “V” recovery so to speak.  I think they will be wrong.

The Biden Presidency will more likely be a period of deepening the political divide during a time in which the economy will worsen.  The long-building problems in our society are coming to a head, and will be for next several years, no matter who the president is.  There are any number of important issues that have been simmering for decades.  Income inequality and the wealth gap tops the list, as this affects everyone and the status quo is unsustainable.  This is directly related to the kind of economy, even the form of capitalism, that will work best in the future.   However, these aren’t the only issues coming to a head.  Cultural and religious conflicts have taken far too big a role in our public policy discourse, creating false dichotomies and deepening political schisms unnecessarily.   Our ongoing journey around diversity and inclusion is coming to a head as the dominant white majority is soon to be less than 50% of the population.  The level of open and covert racism in our socio-politico debates and our policies (i.e. immigration, voting rights, social safety net) is unsustainable. 

Essentially, a lot is happening and it is coming to a head now.  The pandemic lays it all the more bare.  Perhaps this is due to cyclical change processes that repeat over time, connected to generational transitions (i.e. The Fourth Turning, 1997) or socio-economic and institutional cycles (George Friedman, The Storm Before the Calm, 2019).  However we look at it, we are being roiled, the pandemic is enhancing all of this, and it is going to get more challenging.  The seeds will be planted though, for a better future.

In Biden’s presidency, things will get done but it might not seem that way.  The political climate will be as, or more, contentious than ever, but some issues will get addressed.  Healthcare is a good example.  Even in the very politically polarizing Obama presidency, the Affordable Care Act was passed and it changed the whole discussion of healthcare.  Several years of public polling show that the support for the fundamental changes the ACA brought in the areas of pre-existing conditions, a goal of universal coverage, coverage not dependent upon on employer, etc. is strong.  So even while in a contentious period, real change happened.  I think with President Biden real change will occur as the ACA is built upon in some significant way; a pandemic reminds us of the value of universal healthcare.  It is possible that after months of clearing skies and oceans, there will be more appetite for substantial investment in green energy, particularly as part of an economic stimulus program.  Quite possibly some substantial steps on immigration could happen, though that might wait for the next President.

After Biden’s one-term presidency, the country will be ready to shift, more ready than we will sense at the moment.  2024 could be an historic election.  In my work helping organization’s change I have noticed that the times of the most contention are often the times when the biggest changes are about to happen; contentiousness can be a sign of engagement, and engagement creates the social and political energy for change.  The Biden presidency will not be viewed as particularly successful, as there will be much sacrifice and pain, though our regard for it might grow with time.  We will look back at Biden as the leader who created the bridge to the next generation of leadership.  This bridge though will not be constructed over the troubled waters but instead will pass through them.  Let’s hope it can hold.